2022 voter turnout marks record low

Florida's 2022 election results couldn't be more opposite from the rest of the country, where a blue wave allowed Democrats to maintain control of the House, expand control in the Senate, and defeat anti-women amendments across the board.

In Florida, however, more than one million voters disappeared overnight, resulting in a 16-point drop in turnout from 2020.

While DeSantis parades around yet another false narrative about his competence using inflated statistics, the reality is that DeSantis only received 4.6 million votes this year - not the "massive victory" over the 4.1 million he received in his razor-thin and now questionable win in 2018.

In Escambia County, DeSantis received fewer votes in 2022 than he did in 2018.

In Florida's 1st Congressional District (CD-01), a similar pattern emerged:

Only 290,736 voters cast ballots in CD-01 in 2022, compared to 383,610 in 2020 and 322,388 in 2018.

Wildly Inaccurate Polling

6 points off

A September 2022 poll by the Political Matrix showed Rebekah Jones (D) pulling in 39% of the vote - six points more than the final tally against Matt Gaetz (R).

8 points off

St. Pete Polls and David Binder Research had Eric Lynn (D) and Anna Paulina Luna (R) tied just a week before the election. Lynn lost by 8 points.

12 points off

In the US Senate race, polls varied from Marco Rubio (R) leading Val Demings (D) by as much as 12 points (Data for Progress) to as little as 4 points (Victory Insights). Demings lost by 16 points.

14 points off

Alvarado Strategies showed Alan Cohn (D) trailing Laurel Lee (R) by just 7 points in September; GQR Research showed Cohn trailing by just 3 in August. Cohn lost by 17 points.

16 points off

SEA Polling and Strategic Design showed Annette Taddeo (D) beating Maria Salazar (R) by 1 point in October. Taddeo lost by 15 points.

17 points off

Sachs Media Group had Al Lawson (D) trailing Neil Dunn (R) by 3 points. Lawson lost by 20.

18 points off

Polling by The Listener Group in November showed Charlie Crist (D) trailing Desantis (Q) by 4 points. Clarity Campaign Labs had Crist trailing by just 1 point in September; Center Street PAC had Crist trailing by 3 points the same month. Crist lost by 19 points.

Competitive Districts Disappearing

Voter registration in Florida is nearly evenly tied between the two major parties. Only recently did Republicans take over in total party registration, and given their illegal tactics, it's unclear how legitimate that very small takeover is.

Democrats have had a party registration advantage in Florida for decades, and by the close of books in October 2022, party registration came out at 34% Democrat, 34% Republican, 28% No Party, and 4% other.

Either way, for a state split 50/50, its 28 congressional district should be divided up as closely to 14/14 as possible.

However, Desantis' heavily gerrymandered and unconstitutional redistricting map landed Republicans with 20 seats and Democrats with just 8.

Only two districts among the new 28 could even be considered "competitive," meaning the two candidates are within 5 points or fewer of each other absent of any consideration of party affiliation.

By concentrating the Democratic block into "super-blue" districts and diluting it elsewhere, DeSantis stole at least six Congressional seats from Florida democratic voters.

Based on party registration alone, CD-02 should have been one of the most competitive districts in the state this cycle (41% Republican, 40% Democrat), but incumbent Al Lawson (D) lost that district by 20 points to incumbent Neil Dunn (R). CD-04, CD-15, CD-27, and CD-28 all have Republican registration leads of less than 3 points, but the Republican candidates in those races won with 61%, 59%, 57% and 64%, respectively.

And by popular vote, Democratic candidates for Congress won 42% of voter support. If congressional districts reflected popular vote, Florida would have 12 Democratic House representatives. Instead they have 8.

The biggest blowouts were Florida's 12th District, where incumbent Bilirakis won with 70.4% of the vote, Florida's 18th District, with Franklin claiming 74.7% of the vote, and Florida's 26th District (Diaz-Balart with 71%).

After this election, the 1st District can no longer be considered the "reddest" district in the state. CD-01 now ranks 7th in the race for reddest district based on congressional results, even though by voter registration alone it ranks 1st.